Key Takeaways
- BTC at $76,851.
- MA200 at $81,462: overhead resistance, $4,610 above current price.
- MA50 at $75,640: nearest support, $1,211 below current price.
- RSI at 44.64, signal at 58.94: 14.30 point spread, first sub-50 reading since recovery.
- Two Binance taker sell spikes: $1.5B on May 15, $1.1B as price broke $77,000.
What the RSI and MA structure show about the damage
As of today, Bitcoin is trading at $76,851, which is a 1.6% decrease from yesterday’s price. The lowest price reached today was $76,707. Key moving averages remain in the same positions as before: the 200-day moving average is at $81,462, the 50-day is at $75,640, and the 100-day is at $72,223. Both the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are trending upwards, and the 50-day average has crossed above the 100-day average – a positive sign that suggests the recent price drop doesn’t necessarily signal a larger downturn.
Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 44.64, significantly below its signal line of 58.94. This is the largest difference between the two indicators we’ve seen during Bitcoin’s price recovery from February to May, suggesting a stronger downward momentum than on any other day during that period. An RSI below 50 generally indicates negative momentum, and this is one of the first times we’ve seen consistent negative signals since the price began to recover. The signal line, at 58.94, represents the overall upward trend established in April and May; the widening gap between the RSI and the signal line shows how much momentum has been lost.
What the taker sell volume shows
During the recent sell-off, Binance saw a significant increase in sell orders, exceeding $1 billion twice. On May 15th, the volume of these sell orders peaked at around $1.5 billion. It then spiked again, surpassing $1.1 billion, when Bitcoin’s price fell below $77,000.
We’ve seen two large spikes in selling – $1.5 billion on May 15th and $1.1 billion when the price fell below $77,000. These suggest a determined group of sellers are repeatedly pushing prices down, rather than a single, large sell-off that would likely resolve the pressure and stabilize the market.
When traders quickly sell their holdings using market orders – choosing immediate execution over waiting for a specific price – it indicates strong selling pressure. Seeing two large increases in this type of selling within three days suggests the current sell-off isn’t over yet. A single, large spike in this volume, followed by a decrease, would signal a potential bottom. However, two spikes in a row while the price remains below $77,000 don’t indicate a reset and suggest further declines are possible.
What the MA50 must do
Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average (MA50), currently at $75,640, is a key level to watch. It’s $1,211 below the current price and the only major moving average trending upwards. Other important levels are the 100-day MA at $72,223 (down $4,628) and the 200-day MA at $81,462 (up $4,610), creating a roughly symmetrical balance between support and resistance. Whether Bitcoin moves higher or lower largely depends on if it can hold above the MA50. If the MA50 holds with decreasing selling pressure, it suggests the recent price drops are likely over. However, falling below the MA50 would eliminate this key support and shift focus to the MA100 as the next potential support level.
If the price of Bitcoin closes above $79,000 today, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises above 58.94 while selling pressure decreases from earlier this week, it would suggest that the recent price drops were short-lived and the upward trend is continuing.
As an analyst, I’m watching for a daily close below $75,640 – specifically, under the 50-day moving average. If we see that, combined with another large spike in sell volume exceeding $1 billion, it would suggest the selling isn’t over. This would likely mean we’re reversing the gains we’ve seen since the February lows, potentially heading back down toward the 100-day moving average around $72,223.
This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before making any investment choices, please do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.
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2026-05-18 08:35