Galaxy’s Bold 75% CLARITY Act Prediction: Is August a Game-Changer for Crypto Traders?

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Galaxy’s Alex Thorn lifts CLARITY Act odds to 75%

Galaxy Research raised its CLARITY Act passage odds to 75% after the May 14 Senate Banking vote.

Summary

  • Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn forecast a Trump signing the week of Aug. 3 if the Senate keeps pace on reconciliation and floor debate.
  • Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith offered a more cautious 60% probability, citing the narrow window before August recess.
  • Polymarket traders priced 2026 passage at 68%, up sharply from 46% at the start of May.

Alex Thorn, Galaxy Digital’s head of research, now believes there’s a 75% chance the CLARITY Act will be passed into law by 2026. He points to the bipartisan vote in the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 – a 15 to 9 decision – as a key turning point for the bill’s progress.

On May 16th, Thorn outlined the expected timeline in Galaxy Research’s weekly report: the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees would reconcile the bill in early June, followed by a Senate vote by mid-June and final Senate approval before the end of June. The House would then reconcile its version in July, with a possible signature from President Trump around August 3rd.

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) May 16, 2026

Why 75% and not higher

This upgrade is a significant change for Galaxy, reversing their previous outlook. Back in April, crypto.news reported that Thorn estimated the chances at around 50/50, but cautioned that if the increase didn’t happen by mid-May, the likelihood would decrease considerably.

Arizona’s Ruben Gallego and Maryland’s Angela Alsobrooks, both Democrats, teamed up with all 13 Republicans on the committee to move the bill forward. This show of support from both parties, along with a deal reached between Tillis and Alsobrooks regarding stablecoin yields, addressed the concerns previously raised by Thorn about potential risks.

Senator Thorn likened the committee vote to a particularly exciting event, comparing it to “fireworks.” With only about nine weeks left before the Senate’s August 10th break, and considering that significant bills rarely pass during an election year, this vote was especially noteworthy.

Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, estimated the chances of passage at 60%, expressing some caution. “While everything seems to be in place,” she explained in an interview on Friday, “there’s still potential for things to fall apart.”

As of May 18th, Polymarket traders were predicting a 68% chance that something would pass in 2026, an increase from 46% at the beginning of the month, though still lower than Thorn’s prediction.

What an August signing means for retail

crypto.news reported that Senator Elizabeth Warren continues to object to the committee’s vote, raising concerns about money laundering and ethical issues that haven’t been addressed by the Senate yet.

If Galaxy Digital’s predictions are accurate, U.S. retail traders will be subject to clear federal regulations by the end of the year. This goes further than simply meeting exchange rules and will change which trading tools are legally available in the United States.

Ivan Patriki, a fintech marketing expert and co-founder of QuantMap, believes that *what* happens when new regulations are established is more important than *when* they are established.

Patriki explained that simply defining which agency, the SEC or CFTC, has authority isn’t enough. While the bill does create a clearer division of responsibilities between those two agencies, it doesn’t fix the fact that individual investors and large institutions don’t have equal access to information and the resources needed to understand it.

He believes that if a retail trader can’t thoroughly test a strategy using historical data, or doesn’t have access to the same market insights as professional firms, then claims of increased “clarity” are just empty marketing promises. It simply maintains the existing disadvantage for individual traders.

Andreessen Horowitz, as reported by crypto.news, believes this bill could have as significant an impact as the Securities Act of 1933. Similarly, Thorn compared the CLARITY and GENIUS Acts to foundational legislation that helped establish the United States as a leader in global capital markets for a century.

The bill hasn’t become law yet. It still requires approval from 60 Senators, a final agreement between the House and Senate, and the President’s signature. The White House is hoping to have it passed by July 4th.

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2026-05-20 09:20