XRP Drops to Its Lowest Level Since April: Three Sources Tell Different Stories

This chart combines Fibonacci levels with on-chain data from major players to understand current price positioning and predict potential future movements based on past patterns.

The Fibonacci Grid: A Sequential Breakdown

XRP’s price recovery from $1.2779 to $1.5490 in April and May is now reversing. A Fibonacci grid shows this decline clearly. The price initially moved above $1.4850, but then fell below several key levels. It briefly stabilized between $1.4454 and $1.4850, then around $1.4194, but ultimately continued to fall. After failing to hold these levels, the price recently dropped below $1.3884 and then $1.3335, finally breaking through a key support level today.

When the price of XRP fell below $1.3335 (the 0.786 Fibonacci level), it erased over 78.6% of its previous gains from $1.2779 to $1.5490. Currently priced at $1.3225, XRP is approaching $1.2779 with no clear support levels in between. The price is currently $0.0446 above that low point, and this area represents the last significant support before a potential reversal of the recent price increase.

The upward trendline established since late March, along with a key Fibonacci retracement level, both broke down at the same time. It’s unclear if these breaks happened together by chance or if one caused the other. The 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages, currently around $1.3960 and $1.3975 respectively, are acting as a combined declining resistance level, about 7.4 cents above the current price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 36.74, with its signal line at 49.46, indicating downward momentum and nearing oversold conditions, though it hasn’t reached that point yet. The difference between the RSI and its signal is 12.72 points.

What Three On-Chain Sources Show at This Level

As an analyst, I’m seeing a really strange pattern on the blockchain data. The price is currently hitting a key support level on the Fibonacci retracement grid – a historically weak point. What’s even more unusual is that the data suggests very few people are currently distributing their holdings; in fact, distribution signals are at their lowest point I’ve observed. This combination is quite rare and warrants a closer look.

A large cryptocurrency holder is exchanging tokens at a price of around $237, which is near the lowest point the chart has reached. However, despite this, the price is still falling. This suggests that the lack of large-scale selling by major holders isn’t the reason for the price decline, as we’d usually expect more selling pressure if that were the case.

A recent chart from CryptoQuant reveals a dramatic drop in large Binance users (whales) sending cryptocurrency to exchanges. These transactions fell from around 27,500 on May 20th to just 237 now. This decrease happened right as the price dropped below $1.40 and has remained very low since then.

According to data from Ali Charts, large XRP transactions—those exceeding $1 million—decreased significantly, falling 57.3% in just nine days, from 157 to 67. Ali Charts interprets this as a period of consolidation, suggesting that major XRP holders (often called ‘whales’) are pausing their activity. This pause is believed to be allowing the price to stabilize and trading orders to normalize, ultimately reducing short-term price swings.

Over the past nine days, activity from large cryptocurrency holders (often called ‘whales’) has significantly decreased. The number of transactions exceeding $1 million has fallen from 157 to just 67, a drop of over 57%.

When trading volume drops significantly like this, it often suggests the market is about to experience a period of consolidation or reduced price movement.

— Ali Charts (@alicharts)

The NVT Ratio, a measure of market value versus network activity, recently dropped 12.1% in a day to 191.7 as the price also fell. This is a positive sign, different from what we’ve seen in the past. Usually, a rising NVT ratio signals overvaluation and predicts further price drops. However, this decrease suggests that the market is correcting its overvaluation *along with* the price decline, rather than *leading* another drop. Essentially, the gap between the price and actual network usage is shrinking, but it’s happening because the price is going down, not because network activity is increasing. The NVT Ratio has fallen significantly from over 800 in early May to its current level of 191.7.

The three sources, despite being from different periods, all point to the same trends: major investors aren’t selling, the blockchain shows prices are too high and are adjusting downwards, and the price is settling into a final low range.

What the Monthly Formation Implies

EGRAG analysis of XRP’s monthly chart shows a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern. Historically, this pattern has led to a final price drop before a significant increase. Currently, the short-term outlook suggests a period of price squeezing. However, the overall long-term outlook remains positive as long as the pattern doesn’t break down completely. EGRAG anticipates a period of sideways movement, followed by investor discouragement, one last burst of volatility, and then a substantial price surge.

– Formation Talks:

The current structure looks like a Descending Broadening Wedge. This is NOT a random formation.

Historically, these structures often produce:▫️Final capitulationTHEN▫️Violent expansion 🚀

Key Levels:🔴 $1.11 = Critical Support🟢 $3.00 = Bullish…

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto)

EGRAG analysis suggests a key price range is established, with strong support around $1.11, which is about 16% below the current price. To confirm a positive outlook, the price needs to consistently stay above $2.65-$3.00 on weekly or monthly charts. If that happens, potential price increases could reach $7-$11. However, a worst-case scenario could see the price drop to $0.32. EGRAG points out that XRP typically doesn’t move steadily; it tends to consolidate for a long time before experiencing a rapid price surge. Current indicators – including Fibonacci levels, decreasing on-chain activity, and a correction in the NVT ratio – align with this historical pattern of compression followed by a significant jump.

As a crypto investor, I’m closely watching the $1.2779 level on the chart – it represents a full Fibonacci retracement. If the price can break above $1.3335, it suggests this recent dip was just a quick move to shake out traders, and we could see a continued uptrend. However, if we close below $1.2779 with increasing trading volume, that would confirm this retracement and likely push us down to around $1.11, which is seen as a strong support level. Honestly, everything – the chart patterns, on-chain data, and even the monthly trends – seems to be hinging on what happens at $1.2779 right now.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. It’s crucial to do your own research and speak with a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-05-23 15:13