What to know:
- Bitcoin broke above $78,000 after weeks of rangebound trading as risk appetite improved following President Donald Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran.
- Onchain data show bitcoin balances on centralized exchanges at multiyear lows, suggesting investors are holding on to their BTC and raising the potential for a supply shortage.
- While bitcoin has reclaimed levels above its 100-day moving average and momentum traders are reengaging, firms such as QCP Capital argue for caution.
Bitcoin surpassed $78,000, which boosted the entire cryptocurrency market. This increase happened as investors felt more comfortable with risk after U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to continue the ceasefire with Iran, and stock market futures also rose.
After weeks of fluctuating between $65,000 and $75,000 throughout March and early April, the cryptocurrency finally began to rise steadily, giving traders the signal they needed to start buying.
Traders who follow trends often buy when they see prices consistently going up, and Bitcoin is currently showing that pattern. This could attract even more buyers, further driving up the price. Essentially, once something starts moving in a certain direction, it tends to keep going – a principle similar to Newton’s law of motion, though he probably wasn’t thinking about investments when he discovered it.
For months, the market stayed within a narrow trading range of 65 to 75. This breakout is significant because it’s likely to shift how traders act. Those who previously profited by selling when prices rose above 74 will need to adjust their strategies, while buyers who were waiting for a clear signal now have reason to start buying, according to analysts at Marex.
On-chain data supports this idea. CryptoQuant reports that the amount of Bitcoin held on centralized exchanges has fallen to a multi-year low of 2.67 million BTC, suggesting investors are continuing to buy and hold, potentially leading to a significant price increase due to limited supply.
According to Delta Exchange, the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges is decreasing. Fewer coins are being offered for sale as more are being held for the long term, which is reducing overall market liquidity. This increasing scarcity of Bitcoin could lead to greater price swings.
Despite recent gains, QCP Capital advises caution, pointing out that Bitcoin put options on Deribit remain relatively expensive. These puts are typically bought to protect against potential price declines. They also note that the crypto market currently appears to be influenced by oil prices and expectations surrounding interest rates.
According to a recent market update from a Singapore-based firm, the market’s direction still depends heavily on oil prices and Federal Reserve policy. A drop in oil prices or more definitive guidance from the Fed could encourage investment. Without those factors, the market will likely stay cautious and continue to reflect uncertainty rather than finding clear solutions.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures are currently trading near $90 a barrel, recovering from a low of $78 reached on Friday.
Security problems continue to plague the decentralized finance (DeFi) space, with hacking incidents happening frequently. Just today, the Volo protocol, built on Sui, lost over $3 million, following a similar event at KelpDAO that impacted many others. It’s important to be cautious and aware of these risks.
This is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter ‘Daybook.’ Sign up here, if you haven’t already.
Today’s signal
The chart displays how the price of Bitcoin changed each day, using a standard candlestick format. It also includes lines showing the average price over the past 100 and 200 days.
Bitcoin’s price has risen and is now consistently trading above its 100-day average, shown as the white line on the chart. This is an important development because previously, this average acted as a ceiling, limiting price increases in January. After hitting that level, sellers took over, causing the price to fall sharply to around $60,000.
With the price now breaking through a key level, suggesting growing buying pressure, traders are now watching the 200-day average, which currently stands at $85,900.
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2026-04-22 14:22