Glassnode, a company that analyzes Bitcoin data, has pointed out that the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price happened near price levels where many Bitcoin owners originally bought their coins – areas that have historically been important for price movements.
Bitcoin Could Find Support At -1 SD Of The STH Realized Price Next
Glassnode’s recent report highlights an important price level for Bitcoin that it recently touched. This level is determined by looking at two key on-chain indicators: the average price short-term Bitcoin holders paid for their coins, and the True Market Mean, which represents the average cost basis across the network.
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis calculates the average price paid for Bitcoin by investors who bought it within the last 155 days.
Generally, the longer someone holds onto a cryptocurrency, the less likely they are to sell it. Because STHs (Short-Term Holders) are newer to the market and haven’t held their coins for very long, they’re often the most likely to sell, making them a potentially vulnerable part of the market.
From my analysis, short-term holders (STHs) often react strongly to price movements around their initial purchase price. When the market is down, I’ve observed they tend to sell quickly near their break-even point, almost in a panic. Conversely, during uptrends, they seem eager to buy more around that same price level.
Another important factor on the blockchain is the True Market Mean, which measures the average cost basis of traders currently participating in the market. Essentially, it tries to show the overall break-even point for the entire network.
Right now, the average price the market considers fair value is $78,000, while short-term holders (STH) collectively bought in at an average of $79,000. These two price points create an area that could prevent the price from going much higher, especially given the current downward trend.
Bitcoin’s recent attempt to bounce back stalled around this price point, as explained by Glassnode:
This price action is typical during bear markets. When the price nears the point where some investors would start losing money, the urge to sell outweighs new buying, and the price stops going up.
As a researcher, I’ve been tracking Bitcoin’s price movement, and after it faced resistance at that recent level, I’m now looking at the Standard Deviation of the Spent Transaction History (STH) Cost Basis as a potential support level. I’ve put together a chart illustrating various Standard Deviation levels for BTC to help identify possible areas of interest.
The chart shows that after falling below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the next key level to watch is around $68,000, which has historically provided support. Now, we’ll see if Bitcoin tries to break through the resistance levels of the True Market Mean and the STH Cost Basis, or if it will drop back down to find support again.
The recent Bitcoin price increase seems to be losing steam, and we can see this when looking at the profits taken by long-term holders. As the price went up, these holders started selling and realizing their profits, as shown in the chart below.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has fallen to the $76,400 mark since its pullback.
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2026-05-01 07:01