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Trump Backs Prediction Markets As Family Holds Ties to Polymarket and Kalshi

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President Trump publicly intervened in the prediction market dispute for the first time.
Trump’s involvement follows his family’s documented financial ties to the industry, established in January 2025.
The president’s post comes amid ongoing federal lawsuits against at least six states over jurisdictional authority.

Late Tuesday, President Trump used his Truth Social account to state that he believes the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) should continue to have sole control over prediction markets. This move places him directly into the growing dispute between federal and state regulators over these markets.

As I’ve been directing things, we’re establishing clear guidelines – what I believe are the best standards for states to follow. I’m strongly opposed to individuals like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker being the ones to dictate those rules; I don’t believe they should have that influence.

Trump connected the debate over prediction markets to his plans for cryptocurrency, stating that other countries are actively trying to become the global leader in crypto and that he intends to prevent that. He also commended CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, calling him well-respected and praising his work.

This is the first time Trump has publicly weighed in on the legal battle over who regulates prediction markets – a dispute that has already led to federal lawsuits against at least six states.

The Trump Family’s Financial Ties

Trump is getting involved at a time when records show financial ties between his family and companies that predict future events.

In January 2025, Donald Trump Jr. began working as a paid advisor for Kalshi. Later that year, in August, he joined Polymarket’s advisory board after his firm, 1789 Capital, invested a substantial amount – in the tens of millions of dollars – into the platform. Currently, Trump Jr. serves as an advisor for both of the leading companies in this industry.

A representative for Donald Trump Jr. has repeatedly stated that he doesn’t participate in prediction markets and hasn’t discussed either company with government officials.

In October 2025, Trump Media & Technology Group (Nasdaq: DJT), largely owned by the president and his family, revealed plans for Truth Predict, a new feature on Truth Social. This prediction market, developed with Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), a regulated exchange, will allow users to trade on the outcomes of events like elections, sports games, and changes in interest rates. Users will be able to use “Truth gems” earned on the platform and convert them into Cronos (CRO) tokens. Beta testing is expected soon, followed by a full launch across the US.

Essentially, the president is publicly supporting an industry where his son has advisory roles and investments in its top companies, and his own business is planning to compete directly within it.

The Legal Battle Trump Is Weighing In On

Trump’s recent statement wasn’t unexpected. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), led by Chairman Selig, has been actively working to establish federal control over prediction markets and prevent states from making their own rules.

Beginning in February 2026, the CFTC reversed course on its 2024 plan to prohibit political prediction markets. Instead, it has supported companies like Polymarket and Kalshi in legal challenges from states attempting to regulate them as gambling. The CFTC has also filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Wisconsin, and Minnesota – the latter of which recently became the first state to completely ban prediction markets through legislation signed by Governor Tim Walz.

Attorneys general from thirty-nine states, representing both Democrats and Republicans, are supporting Nevada’s efforts to regulate gambling through legal action against Kalshi. While Massachusetts initially won a court order to stop Kalshi in January 2026, that decision is currently paused as Kalshi appeals it.

The people Donald Trump mentioned in his post are all involved in these actions. Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey, has spoken out in favor of states’ rights to control gambling. Letitia James, the Attorney General of New York, has sued companies operating prediction markets, claiming they break state gambling laws. Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, signed a law that is the first in the nation to ban these markets. And Illinois, under Governor JB Pritzker, is currently involved in a lawsuit brought by the CFTC regarding this issue.

Because Selig was the only current commissioner on the CFTC’s five-member board – with four positions still open due to unfilled appointments by Trump – he was able to implement his strategy without disagreement from within the agency.

Why This Raises Questions

There’s been increasing scrutiny from the media and Congress regarding potential conflicts of interest between Donald Trump’s policy positions and his family’s investments in markets where people bet on future events.

A recent New York Times investigation revealed that top officials at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) dismissed warnings from their staff regarding potential fraud and inadequate consumer protection in prediction market apps linked to businesses owned by the Trump family. The investigation also found that CFTC employees who voiced concerns about cryptocurrency oversight were subjected to internal investigations or were removed from their positions.

Recently, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Dave McCormick proposed a law to prevent members of Congress, the President, Vice President, and top government officials from using prediction markets to profit from events they have influence over. Senator Bernie Moreno has also suggested a similar rule, but specifically for senators.

A new bill, the “Death Bets Act,” proposed in March by Representatives Mike Levin and Senator Jeff Merkley, aims to prevent financial exchanges registered with the CFTC from offering contracts based on events like war, terrorism, assassination, or death. This comes after significant trading activity – over $529 million – occurred on Polymarket related to the military strikes in February and March.

Despite questions about the Trump family’s finances and new legislative ideas, the CFTC continues to push for its authority. Court rulings have been inconsistent: federal judges supported Kalshi in New Jersey and Tennessee, but courts in Nevada and Massachusetts temporarily blocked the platform.

What It Means

With Trump’s clear support, there’s no question where the government stands on prediction markets. This administration doesn’t just allow them – it actively supports and defends them legally, even investing in them through the president’s media company.

Whether this is good policy, a potential conflict of interest, or a combination of both is open to debate. However, it’s clear that the future of regulation for prediction markets in the U.S. is now directly tied to the financial interests of the Trump family.

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2026-05-27 11:08