Costco Recession Signal Resurfaces as Beef Prices Hit Record Highs

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Costco ‘Recession Signal’ Goes Viral as Old CFO Remarks Resurface On Record Beef Prices

There’s been a lot of discussion online this weekend about a supposed recession warning from Costco. However, the comments being shared, attributed to former CFO Richard Galanti, originally came from an earnings call last year, in 2023.

During Costco’s May 2023 earnings call, I noticed a really interesting trend. Our CFO, Richard Galanti, pointed out that customers are starting to move away from buying beef and opting for more affordable protein options like canned chicken and tuna. This shift reminded me of similar patterns we saw during economic slowdowns in 1999, 2000, and again between 2008 and 2010. It suggests consumers are becoming more price-conscious and adjusting their purchasing habits.

Where the Costco Quotes Actually Came From

After working at the company for about forty years, Galanti resigned as CFO in March 2024. Gary Millerchip has been the CFO since then, and he hasn’t indicated any of the same concerns in recent financial updates.

Costco leaders have reported that member spending has remained fairly stable during the first two quarters of fiscal year 2026.

Despite what you might see online, sales of more expensive cuts of meat are growing faster than cheaper options. This goes against the idea that people are switching to less expensive proteins.

Costco has noticed a significant change in what its customers are buying. People are purchasing less expensive beef and fewer high-end items, and instead are buying more chicken, canned tuna and chicken, and Costco’s own Kirkland Signature brand products. According to Costco’s leaders…

— World of Statistics (@stats_feed) May 17, 2026

Why the Recession Narrative Still Resonates

U.S. beef prices have reached an all-time high. In March 2026, ground beef cost around $6.70 per pound, and live cattle were trading for approximately $2.58 per pound.

The number of cattle in the United States is at its lowest point in 75 years, due to ongoing drought and the increasing cost of feeding them. Earlier this month, President Trump postponed a decision that would have allowed more beef to be imported, with the goal of lowering prices.

The Trump administration has put off a plan to remove tariffs on imported beef. This action was part of a broader effort to address rising costs for consumers.

— Bloomberg (@business) May 12, 2026

That backdrop makes a recycled 2023 clip feel current, even when the underlying data has shifted.

This trend is similar to a recent economic indicator that’s gained attention. US cardboard box production decreased by over 8% in the first three months of 2026. Historically, drops of this size have often signaled an upcoming recession in the United States.

In March, Goldman Sachs increased its estimate for a US recession within the next year to 30%. They pointed to rising oil prices and more restrictive financial conditions as key factors influencing this outlook.

Concerns about a potential recession are growing as the conflict in Iran impacts the U.S. economy. Rising oil prices, driven by the war, are making the economic outlook less certain. Goldman Sachs now estimates a 30% chance of a recession, forecasting inflation around 3% and unemployment increasing to 4.6% by 2026. Increased fuel costs are a major factor contributing to these concerns.

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) March 25, 2026

Currently, Polymarket predicts about a 23% chance of a US recession by the end of the year. This is a significant drop from the higher levels of concern seen earlier in the year.


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2026-05-17 15:01