Bitcoin’s $100K Fight: Altcoins Scream for Help!

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What to know:

  • The average crypto RSI sits at 38, with several tokens like OKB and FLR near 23, suggesting a possible short-term relief rally. 🥺 (aka “I’m fine, really”)
  • Bitcoin and ether must hold $99,000 and $3,100, respectively, to avoid triggering further downside. (Because nothing says “confidence” like a 1% rise after a 20% crash. 🤷‍♀️)
  • While most altcoins erased recent months’ gains, privacy tokens like XMR remain outperformers, up 7% on Wednesday. (Because who doesn’t want to be extra secretive? 🔒)

The crypto market is weary after relentless waves of sell pressure on Tuesday. Several assets have now settled as they begin to establish levels of support, although if the U.S. dollar continues to show strength it could signal a period of prolonged downside. (The dollar is like the domineering parent of the financial world. 😭)

Bitcoin rose about 1% since midnight UTC after two days of declines that saw it drop to the lowest price since June at one point. Ether, which slid as much than 20% over the 48 hours – the steepest drop in three months – added 2%. (Bitcoin: “I’m just here for the 1%.” Ether: “I’m a disaster, but I’m trying!”)

While the CoinDesk 20 Index, a measure of the biggest cryptocurrencies, is 2.5% lower over 24 hours, that pretty much reflects yesterday’s action: It’s up 2.2% since midnight UTC and only one constituent, , is lower. (The market is like a toddler who lost their favorite toy. 😢)

The altcoin market is in worse shape than bitcoin, which continues to cling on to the $99,000 level of support. (Altcoins: “We’re not crying, you’re crying.”)

Several tokens have now retraced their entire rallies from July, suggesting a short-lived “altcoin season” has concluded with focus moving back to BTC and whether it can weather this recent storm. (Altcoin season: “We were here, we were fun, and now we’re gone. 💸”)

Derivatives Positioning

By Saksham Diwan

  • The BTC futures market reflects rising caution. Open interest (OI) has declined to $25.3 billion from $26 billion last week, suggesting traders are reducing leverage. (Traders: “I’m not panicking, I’m just… reevaluating.”)
  • The three-month annualized basis is suppressed at 3%-4%, signaling that the basis trade is currently unappealing. Funding rates are mixed but low across major venues (4%-9% annualized), reinforcing a lack of strong trend commitment and overall market caution from the futures side. (Futures market: “We’re not excited, really.”)
  • The bitcoin options market is displaying mixed but volatile signals. (Options: “I’m confused, but I’m here for the ride.”)
  • Implied volatility (IV) is high across all expiries, pointing to elevated near-term movement expectations. Structurally, the IV term structure shows near-term backwardation (downward slope) before resuming a long-term contango (upward slope). (Volatility: “I’m here to make things exciting.”)
  • Despite this volatility, the recent trading bias has flipped back to bullish, with the 24-hour put-call volume leaning 58%-42% in favor of calls, indicating active upside preference. (Traders: “We’re bullish, but we’re also terrified.”)
  • The recent price drop was heavily influenced by leveraged unwinds, with $1.7 billion in liquidations over the past 24 hours split 76%-24% in favor of long positions. ETH led the notional losses with $572 million liquidated. (Leverage: “I’m not greedy, I’m just… overconfident.”)
  • Crucially, the average long liquidation volume over the past two days of $1 billion is significantly higher than the seven-day average of $620 million, confirming the amplified impact of forced selling on current price action. (Forced selling: “I didn’t ask for this.”)
  • Looking ahead, a bounce may face immediate resistance, with a key price level at $102,500 having $124 million in potential liquidations. (Resistance: “I’m not stopping you, but I’m not helping either.”)

Token Talk

By Oliver Knight

  • The altcoin market remains in oversold territory following Tuesday’s grueling sell-off that saw several tokens fall to their lowest in months. (Oversold: “I’m not broken, I’m just… stressed.”)
  • The average crypto relative strength index (RSI) is at 38/100, with tokens including OKB, SKY and FLR printing figures as low as 23/100. This suggests that while the overall crypto market is leaning bearish, a short-term relief rally may be on the cards. (RSI: “I’m not dead yet, but I’m definitely not happy.”)
  • Any suggestion of a bounce would be invalidated if bitcoin and ether break below their respective levels of support at $99,000 and $3,100. (Support levels: “I’m here, but don’t count on me.”)
  • If further downside in BTC and ETH was to occur, altcoins would fare worse due to a lack of liquidity and skewed levels of leverage. This means altcoin orderbooks simply do not have sufficient buy orders to absorb sell pressure and subsequent liquidations, resulting in dramatic spikes to the downside. (Altcoins: “We’re not ready for this.”)
  • Traders will be wondering whether the recent “altcoin season” is officially over with the majority of tokens, with the exception of privacy coins, eroding their rallies from July and August. (Altcoin season: “We were here, we were fun, and now we’re gone. 💸”)
  • The privacy coin narrative remains a key driver in the current market, while DCR and ZEC cooled off on Wednesday, XMR rose 7% and the entire sector remains significantly higher over the past month. (Privacy coins: “We’re not hiding, we’re just… extra.”)

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2025-11-05 16:34