Bitcoin is behaving differently than it has in the past during price surges. Unlike previous peaks, key data points that usually signal a top haven’t shown any significant changes, even though Bitcoin’s price has exceeded $81,000.
Indicators like the MVRV Z-Score, exchange balances, and Bitcoin ETF holdings point to a fundamental change in the market, not just a typical slowdown. While individual investors haven’t been very active, large institutions have been buying Bitcoin at an unprecedented rate.
Bitcoin Cycle: The MVRV Z-Score That Never Fired
The MVRV Z-Score shows the difference between Bitcoin’s current market price and what its actual value is based on transaction history. Historically, when this score goes above 6, it often signals the peak of a price cycle. When it gets close to zero, it suggests a good time to start buying Bitcoin.
According to data from Glassnode, this metric reached around 3.5 after the recent halving event. This is significantly lower than the peaks of previous bull runs – 12, 11, and 7 – which marked the end of the cycles in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
As an analyst, I’ve been studying previous market cycles and their peaks. Historically, we’ve seen tops form when the Z-Score reached above 6, entering what I call the ‘red zone’. For example, the peak in 2017 hit a Z-Score of 10, and in 2021 it reached around 7. However, in this current cycle, the Z-Score never came close to those levels, suggesting a different dynamic is at play.
As of May 14, 2026, the Z-Score is near 1. Unlike past periods of market excitement, the indicator that usually signals those peaks hasn’t triggered during this recent recovery from the 2022 lows.
To signal a traditional market peak, the indicator needs to rise above 3.5. Historically, a continued increase towards 6 has often been followed by a several-month downturn.
From my analysis, it looks like company valuations have increased at a rate that’s kept pace with rising prices, which is a good sign. Importantly, we haven’t seen the kind of excessive, unsustainable excitement – the ‘mania’ – that typically signals a market top. This suggests the current growth is more grounded.
Exchange Supply Continues to Drain
The chart of Bitcoin held on exchanges also reveals a significant shift related to supply. Glassnode has been monitoring the total amount of BTC on all exchanges throughout its history.
Bitcoin holdings reached a high of over 3.3 million in early 2022. Since then, the amount has gradually decreased to around 3 million by May 2026.
At the same time, the price of Bitcoin increased. By October 2025, it had surpassed its previous highest points, reaching $126,000, even as the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges decreased.
When the number of coins on exchanges decreases while their price goes up, it often means investors are taking direct control of their holdings. This trend is similar to what we see when large groups of major investors are building up their coin reserves.
For this pattern to reverse, the total amount of Bitcoin held on exchanges would need to increase beyond 3.2 million BTC. This would indicate that long-term holders, who’ve been accumulating Bitcoin for the last three years, are starting to sell.
Spot ETFs Now Hold Roughly 1.3 Million BTC
Before January 2024, the United States didn’t have any Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly held Bitcoin. Now, these ETFs collectively hold almost 1.3 million BTC, according to data from Glassnode.
This accounts for about 6.5% of all Bitcoin in circulation. BlackRock’s IBIT fund is currently the most popular, with Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s offerings following closely behind.
Despite price fluctuations, continued buying indicates investors are strategically adding Bitcoin, not just reacting to short-term gains. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are acquiring Bitcoin faster than the rate at which new coins are created through mining.
With fewer and fewer coins available, the remaining buyers are driving up the price. This explains why the price is increasing even though we’re not seeing the same level of activity on the blockchain as in past market surges.
This analysis focuses on the underlying structure of the market, not just where it’s headed. The factors currently dampening excitement in retail might also lessen the severity of a typical downturn later in the economic cycle.
Money can flow out of ETFs, potentially causing price changes. Because a large portion of ETF shares are held by institutions, shifts in their investment strategies or broader market conditions could trigger significant selling.
What the data shows is that historical thresholds may no longer map cleanly to this market.
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2026-05-15 04:17