According to analyst Crypflow, Bitcoin’s recent recovery is at a key level on its two-week chart, and this is where signs of a new, sustained price increase – a bull market – are likely to emerge.
The analysis centers around a specific technical indicator – the 21-week and 21-day moving average ribbon – which has historically marked the transitions between Bitcoin’s bull and bear markets. While Bitcoin’s price is starting to rise again after the 2022 bear market, it’s currently facing resistance around the $81,974 level, specifically at the 21-week moving average.
Bitcoin Is Pushing Into The Bull-Bear Ribbon Again
Predicting when a Bitcoin bull market will begin is always difficult. Each market cycle includes false starts, unexpected drops, and temporary recoveries that mislead investors. However, for more than a decade, one specific indicator has consistently and accurately distinguished between Bitcoin’s rising and falling markets.
A significant pattern appears on Bitcoin’s 2-week price chart when the 21-week moving average (WMA) crosses over the 21-week simple moving average (SMA). This crossover is often seen as a key indicator of market trends. According to crypto analyst Crypflow, when the 21 WMA rises above the 21 SMA, it suggests a bull market (rising prices), while a drop below the SMA signals a bear market (falling prices).
In my research, I’ve noticed a recurring pattern in these cycles. After the peak in 2013, a bearish crossover happened, signaling the start of a significant correction that eventually led to the low in 2015. The subsequent bullish crossover then confirmed we were entering a new growth phase. We saw this happen again after the 2017 peak – a bearish crossover foreshadowed the downturn to the 2018 low, and a bullish signal in 2019 indicated the start of another expansion. It seems these crossovers reliably precede major shifts in the cycle.
As a crypto investor, I’ve been watching this moving average pattern for a while now, and it’s actually been pretty reliable. I remember it flashed a warning sign right before the big crash in 2020, and then confirmed the start of the bull run when Bitcoin bounced back. It did the same thing in 2021 – a bearish signal at the peak, followed by a downtrend all the way to the 2022 low. Then, when it flipped bullish in 2023, that really confirmed we were starting to climb again, setting the stage for the 2025 peak we’re hoping for.
BTC Needs To Reclaim This Level
Bitcoin recently signaled the start of a bear market in 2025 after reaching a peak price of over $126,000 and then declining. This decline marked the beginning of its current downward trend.
Currently, Bitcoin is attempting to rise above the level that would confirm it’s still in a downward trend. While the chart indicates sellers are still in control, the price is presently below key average levels.
Looking at the two-week price chart, the $81,974 level (based on the 21-week moving average) is an important area to watch. The 21-week simple moving average is a bit higher, around $90,415. Currently, Bitcoin’s price is below both of these levels, trading at approximately $77,980.
Bitcoin briefly surpassed $82,000 last week, moving above its 21-week moving average. However, it has since fallen back to around $76,914. This fluctuation explains why one analyst believes Bitcoin is repeatedly testing the 21-week moving average, but continues to face resistance at that level.
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2026-05-19 02:27