Bitcoin’s 64% Profit: What’s the 36% Hiding?

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Bitcoin’s weekly realized losses hit $793M as supply in profit stalls at 64%, signaling fragile market structure and weak investor conviction.

The rebound had looked real. It lasted about two weeks. A mere flicker of hope, like a candle in a storm, extinguished by the breath of doubt.

After spending most of 2025 bleeding through realized losses, Bitcoin investors had quietly started locking in profits again. On-chain data from Darkfost on X showed weekly net realized profit turning positive on April 9. Markets were, for a moment, recovering more than they were losing. A fleeting victory, like a bird caught in a net-brief, but no less tragic.

That phase is now over. The market, ever fickle, has returned to its old habits, as if the past two weeks were a dream.

Rebound Stalls as Weekly Losses reach $793M

Profit still struggles to establish itself sustainably across the market.

⌈Contrary to what many may think, a healthy market is one where investors both hold and realize profits, without reaching an extreme of course. In…

– Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc)

Source: Darkfost_Coc 

$793 Million in Losses, and Counting

The seven-day moving average for net realized losses now sits at $793 million. Realized profits, by comparison, came in at $571 million for the same period. That is not a rounding error. It is a lament, a dirge for the hopes of the faithful.

Those numbers come directly from Darkfost on X, who tracks Bitcoin’s supply in profit as part of ongoing on-chain analysis. The gap between the two figures points to a market that reversed direction fast, like a man fleeing a ghost.

What makes this harder to explain away is timing. The profit phase started April 9. It ended roughly two weeks later. Whatever conviction existed, it did not last long enough to matter. A romance doomed by the clock.

Why 64% Is Not the Number Bulls Want

The percentage of Bitcoin supply currently sitting in profit is 64%. That sounds like a majority. It probably is not enough. A majority of what? A crowd of indifferent souls, perhaps.

According to Darkfost on X, a genuinely healthy market typically shows investors both holding and realizing profits without hitting extremes in either direction. The current reading falls short of that bar. At 64%, the market has not built the kind of base that usually precedes sustained upward movement. It is a house of cards, trembling in the wind.

For context, Bitcoin’s supply in profit dropped to 59.5% during one of its sharpest pullback phases this cycle. The current level at 64% is better than that floor. Not by a comfortable margin. A narrow escape, but no triumph.

Darkfost described the market as fragile and unstable. Investors appear reluctant, or simply unable, to commit with conviction for the longer term. A curious state of affairs, akin to a man who fears the very thing he desires.

Reluctance Has a Cost

That reluctance shows up in the data. The rebound off earlier lows was real price action. The on-chain behavior behind it was not convincing. A performance without a soul, like a play staged by actors who forgot their lines.

After a period of almost uninterrupted loss realization through most of this year, any return to profitability should have held longer if sentiment was actually shifting. It did not. The market moved back into net loss territory within two weeks of flipping positive, per Darkfost’s post on X. A cycle of hope and despair, as predictable as the seasons.

What that looks like, practically, is a group of investors selling into strength rather than holding through it. The upside arrived and they used it to exit. That pattern does not build market structure. It moves money out. A tragedy of missed opportunities, written in the margins of ledger books.

Disclaimer: This article is based on on-chain data and third-party analysis. It does not constitute financial or investment advice.

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2026-04-28 15:46