Lithium Prices Soar… But the ETF Slows Down!

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Lithium carbonate, that sly little mineral, was holding its breath at one-year highs on April 24, with TradingEconomics charting it at 173,000 CNY per ton. The one-year chart pattern? A grand performance of recovery from the mid-2025 lows of 60,000-70,000 CNY/T, followed by a dramatic sprint into late 2025 and early 2026. The price briefly danced above 180,000 CNY/T, but now it’s playing hide-and-seek, hiding below that level.

This means lithium is in a fine position on the longer-term chart. The market structure has transformed from a long, boring base to an uptrend with higher highs and higher lows-most of the last six months have been a delightful rollercoaster. The recent move suggests buyers are still clinging to the upper range-a retrace? Not a chance!

Analyst Points: 120% Surge In Lithium Carbonate

In a post on X, Steve Hanke (a man with a penchant for drama) claimed the Wall Street Journal reported lithium carbonate prices have soared by over 120% in the last six months. He blamed the demand for batteries in the AI data industry, as if the world’s tech giants didn’t already have enough problems. The shape of his post? A price chart, of course. The fastest leg of the rally began late in 2025, with lithium carbonate decisively breaking out above 100,000 CNY/T and then hurtling toward the 160,000-180,000 CNY/T range. The commodity remains high, despite a couple of corrections-like a stubborn child refusing to nap.

The TradingEconomics one-year chart reveals the market has shrugged off one or two corrections, remaining firmly in the bull camp. Each correction has brought the commodity back to the 140,000-160,000 CNY/T band, where it bounces back to new highs. The latest reading? A proud 173,000 CNY/T, keeping lithium perched at the top of its range like a mischievous parrot on a perch.

Lithium ETFs Are Flatter Than the Commodity Itself

The short-term outlook? Less frothy, more flat. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) was at $83.62, or 0.05% lower for the session on the TradingView chart. The intraday price range remained tight, with the ETF trading around the $83.60-$83.85 zone. No strong push above-just a yawn, really. The volume was also thin, with only 5 units displayed. These lower levels of activity are consistent with the ETF trading in a range while waiting for a clearer trend. Like a sleepy cat, it’s just… lying there.

That contrast matters. On one hand, pure lithium carbonate is still trading at the top of its range. On the other, the ETF is holding steady after its previous surge, no longer showing the same short-term momentum. The price candles depict a mix of small gains and losses, which is an indication of consolidation. Or, as I like to call it, “the ETF’s nap time.”

ETF Momentum Has Weakened; MACD Shows

The ETF’s momentum also weakened. According to TradingView, the MACD line was 0.0653, less than the signal line of 0.1130, and the histogram was -0.0477. This maintains negative short-term momentum despite the price being near new highs. In other words, the commodity is still healthier than the ETF. Lithium carbonate is still in a long-term uptrend, while the ETF is cooling off. The ETF’s near-term support is at $83.50, with resistance at $83.80 to $84.00. A battle of wits, perhaps?

The charts remain a relative tale of two speeds for now. The lithium carbonate price is still close to its best of the year on the back of a strong six-month rally. The lithium/battery-tech ETF is, however, taking things more slowly, with price holding but momentum neutral. Like a tortoise and a hare, but the hare is stuck in traffic.

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2026-04-24 22:39